Sunday, April 26, 2009

SP 500 Index


The S&P500 Index represents the 500 biggest companies listed in the US stock markets.

Let's have a quick look at the quarterly chart (the very long term view):
1) we had a formidable bull market from 1980 till 2000: 20 years of continued uptrend
2) the index is now in oversold territory (see the stochastics graphics). This did not happen since 2001 after the internet bubble krash.
3) the last candlestick on the chart (that small body with a long tail called a "hammer") is a bullish sign for the future if confirmed by a bullish candlestick during the next quarter.
4) My gut feeling? we are in a primary bear market for equities and that won't change for a while even if there might be some rallies from time to time. Story is different for China though: the next bull market has already started.

Let's look at the S&P500 daily chart now:


There is a resistance level that needs to be crossed to give rise to the next leg up. The buy trigger is at 875. If we can cross this level next week, the market should continue its move up.
My gut feeling: we will retrace to around 800 before continuing to go up.

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