Sunday, August 2, 2009

Rice price

Weekly chart:


Daily chart:


The consumption patterns for rice show that it is the number one food staple for over 50% of the world. The vast majority (over 90%) of global rice is grown and consumed in Asia.

Typically the growth cycle of rice is between 3 to 6 months. Growing rice requires on average a relatively high temperature and crucially a very reliable supply of water. It takes 5,000 litres of water to produce a kilo of rice!

Given the sensitivity of water as a scarce resource, future changes in weather pattern due to climate change may have a significant impact on production levels and hence on rice prices.

The top 5 producers in the world are China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam, and the USA comes in 11th position, producing less than 2% global rice production , but responsible for 12% of world exports.

Around 85% of world exports come from just six countries, led by Thailand as the largest, followed by Vietnam, India, USA, Pakistan and China.

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On the charts above, a resistance appears at a price of 1400. A rise above that level would trigger a buy signal.
You can trade rough rice through futures on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) which specializes in agricultural and soft commodities.
To the best of my knowledge there is no ETF dedicated to rice but you can gain some exposure through generic ETFs that invest in agricultural commodities including rice.

The fundamentals for rice have not changed: global demand will increase because more people will need to eat and supplies are limited.

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