Tuesday, August 4, 2009

S&P500 chart analysis (SPY ETF)


SPY is the ticker of the SPDR S&P500 Trust Series ETF that follows the S&P500 index.

Let's examine the above weekly chart:
1) since its low of 666 in early March, the S&P500 has increased up to 1008 today, that is a 51% impressive bounce in about 5 months!
2) the Fibonacci lines on the chart help us visualize the levels where resistance and support are present.
3) the S&P500 will be reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio at around 1017. This price might act as a resistance and lead to a trend reversal. Else, if it goes above that price, the next resistance is at
around 1123 (50% Fibonacci ratio) and then at around 1230 (61.8% Fibonacci ratio).
4) On the above chart, one candle represents one week of trading. It is interesting to note that the size of the candles over the last 4 weeks (see the circle in pink on the above chart) has been progressively decreasing, meaning that the bulls are becoming tired, which could announce a trend reversal.
5) I am now focusing on the 1017 key level to see if the SPY will cross it to the upside or not.

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