Stopped out of SCIN @ $22.50

I was stopped out of my position in the Indian Small Cap ETF (ticker: SCIN). That's what a stop loss is made for: to avoid big damages to your portfolio. I lost 13% compared to my purchase price.
According to recent news, a corruption scandal in India made the indian ETFs, including SCIN, take a big drop  last Friday. See more details here.

USD index chart analysis: anticipated reversal

Let's examine the weekly chart of the US Dollar index to get the long-term view:

1) the USD index is in a rising wedge technical formation 

2) it was at 88 last June and from there started to go down

2) it has now reached the bottom of the rising support at around 77

2) my gut feeling is that we might now get a reversal

Let's now turn to the daily chart:

1) the 20 daily moving average has not crossed the 50 daily moving average to the upside. According to the system I am using, there is no buy signal yet 

2) a bullish divergence exists between the price and the MACD technical signal: this is a signal that a reversal is coming

Previous posts regarding the US Dollar index:

- US Dollar index (August 12, 2010)

- US Dollar index: SELL signal triggered (July 14, 2010)

- US Dollar index: an update (May 20, 2010)

- US Dollar index (May 9, 2010)

- US Dollar index chart analysis (April 18, 2010)

- US Dollar index chart analysis (February 7, 2010)

- US Dollar index chart analysis (December 23, 2009)

- US Dollar index chart analysis (November 29, 2009)

Buying today the Uranium ETF (URA) @ $19.39

entry price: $19.39
total position : $10,000
stop loss: $16

Uranium

I am willing to bet on uranium price appreciation in the next few months. From its high of $300/kg reached in 2006-2007, price is now at around $120/kg. Stocks active in the uranium sector have been making new yearly highs (see example of UEX Corporation below). If you look at UEX weekly chart, one can see that the resistance was recently broken.

Fundamentals are good:
- Growing populations and ongoing urbanization in many of the world’s emerging markets will likely lead to drastic increases in demand for both uranium and electricity.
- Several countries (China, USA, France,...) plan to increase their nuclear power in the next future. China is expected to have as many as 150 new nuclear power reactors become operational over the next 10 years and India plans on doubling the share of nuclear power on its grid over the next 20 years.

UEX Corporation is a Canadian uranium exploration and development company formed under agreement between Cameco Corporation and Pioneer Metals Corporation. UEX began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in July 2002 and is an active explorer in the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan, which is the most important uranium-producing district in the world, accounting for approximately 20% of global primary uranium production in 2009.

A new ETF was launched last week to invest in uranium stocks: the " Global X Uranium ETF (ticker: URA on the NYSE). See factsheet here. It will be the first ETF to focus exclusively on this industry.
Top 10 holdings include: Cameco, Paladin Energy, Uranium One, Denison Mines, Hathor Exploration, Energy Resources of Australia, ...

I plan to buy a position in this ETF for my portfolio in the next few days..

Buying the India Small Caps ETF (SCIN)

The Emerging Global Shares Indxx India Small Cap ETF (ticker: SCIN, listed on the NYSE) was launched at the end of July of this year. This fund invests, not in ADRs traded on the NYSE, but in small-cap equities listed on Indian stock exchanges. Top 10 holdings include: Indian Bank, UCO Bank, Patni Computer Systems, Godrej Industries, Dish TV India, Amtek Auto, Vijaya Bank. The ETF covers a broad array of industrial sectors: software and computer services, banking, food producers, real estate, travel & leisure, metals & mining, chemicals, industrial engineering.

The investment thesis behind this trade is that of the expanding middle class in emerging markets. India's middle class is expected to grow from around 5% of the population in 2005 to more than 40% in 2025 according to a McKinsey study. This class will demand cars, electronics, cell phones and other consumer products as standards of living increase. India should exceed China's population within the next 25 years and, contrary to China, is a democracy.

A lot of ETFs offer exposure to the Indian market but are invested in large capitalization companies. SCIN offers an opportunity to tap into the small Indian companies that can grow at a much higher pace than large companies.

Detailed information on this ETF can be found here.

I am buying SCIN today at a price of $25.89 for a total of $10,000.
Stop loss: $22.5

Buying the Brazil Infrastructure ETF (BRXX)

Brazil is one of the countries I have been following closely for the past 6 months. Brazil is preparing for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. This will require the country to engage in lots of infrastructure projects. An ETF launched in February of this year precisely tracks the infrastructure industry in this country by investing in 30 leading companies from various sectors (electricity, gas, water, utilities, industrial transportation, telecom, metals and mining,...): the "Emerging Global Shares Indxx Brazil Infrastructure Index ETF" (ticker: BRXX, listed on the NYSE).
Top 10 holdings include: Cia de Concessoes Rodoviarias, Ultrapar Participaoes, Vale, Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica, Tractebel Energia, Weg, AES Tiete, Cia Siderurgica Nacional.
Detailed information here.

I am buying this ETF today for my portfolio at the price of USD 25.1 for a total of USD 10,000.
Stop loss:  $22.5. I am buying for the long-term (several years).