Monday, January 31, 2011
Buying UNG at $5.99
Buying United States Natural Gas Fund (ticker: UNG on NYSE) at $5.99 for a total of $10,000
Stop loss: $5.70
Stop loss: $5.70
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Oil chart analysis
On Friday, oil price (West Texas Intermediate) printed a nice bullish engulfing candlestick, at the same time crossing the 50 day moving average to the upside. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) broke above the 50 level. This is strongly bullish about what will happen next.
To trade oil price, buying the United States Oil Fund (USO) is one of the possibilities. It tracks what the oil price does. As you can see on the daily chart below, the move of Friday happened with a huge volume of transactions.
To trade oil price, buying the United States Oil Fund (USO) is one of the possibilities. It tracks what the oil price does. As you can see on the daily chart below, the move of Friday happened with a huge volume of transactions.
Gold chart analysis
On the weekly chart of gold, the price has reached the bottom of the 2 year up trend-line but on Friday recovered and printed a bullish hammer. This is a signal that the decrease of gold price of the recent weeks may have come to an end. Important will be to check what the next candlestick will be on Monday. If the candlestick is bullish, the probabilities are high that the gold keeps bouncing upwards.
If gold loses support of the trend-line shown on the weekly chart, it will be a long way down to the 200 day moving average at $1280 (see daily chart below).
Saturday, January 29, 2011
2010-2011 Country Stock Market Performance
The 5 country stock markets that performed best in 2010 were Sri Lanka (+96.01%), Bangladesh (+82.79%), Estonia (+72.62%), Ukraine (+70.20%) and Peru (+64.99%).
Since the beginning of this year, the 5 best performers are Nigeria (+12.11%), Italy (+9.83%), Spain (+9.70%), Greece (+9.53%) and Romania (+9.44%).
Chart: Courtesy of Bespoke Invest (www.bespokeinvest.com)
Since the beginning of this year, the 5 best performers are Nigeria (+12.11%), Italy (+9.83%), Spain (+9.70%), Greece (+9.53%) and Romania (+9.44%).
Chart: Courtesy of Bespoke Invest (www.bespokeinvest.com)
Natural gas
Natural gas has been the most hated commodity during the last 18 months. Indeed, contrary to all other commodities, natural gas price has been in a downward trend since mid 2009.
Some signs that a bullish reversal might be on the cards can be seen on the charts below.
On the weekly chart, one can see that the down trend line was broken.
On the daily chart, since November 2010, the price has been making higher highs and higher lows.
Some signs that a bullish reversal might be on the cards can be seen on the charts below.
On the weekly chart, one can see that the down trend line was broken.
On the daily chart, since November 2010, the price has been making higher highs and higher lows.
Natural gas will be on my radar during the next few weeks to detect a confirmation of the bullish reversal.
Volatility index (VIX) and S&P500 (SPY)
Yesterday (Friday 28 January 2011), the volatility index went strongly higher. See below the chart of the iPath S&P500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), the ETN ("Exchange-Traded Note") that tracks the Volatility Index (also called the "VIX index").
The Relative Strength Index that was oversold started to curl higher. And the volume spiked up strongly. That can be interpreted as a warning sign about a future reversal of the stock markets.
The Relative Strength Index that was oversold started to curl higher. And the volume spiked up strongly. That can be interpreted as a warning sign about a future reversal of the stock markets.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Buying Ukrainian agricultural company
To profit from the increase in price of agricultural commodities, I am buying an Ukrainian agricultural company called Creativ Industrial Group.
The company engages in the production of refined deodorized sunflower oil, modified vegetable fats, hard and soft margarine, mayonnaise, melted butter, and confectionary products. It also produces mayonnaises, mustard, vinegar, and tomato paste. The company exports its products to Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Georgia. Its products are used in food and dairy industries, as well as for bakery products. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Kirovograd, Ukraine. It employs over 1700 people.
Website: http://creativ-group.com.ua/en/
Bloomberg code: 4C8A GR
The company is very cheap: its current market capitalization ($139 million) represents 41% of its 2010 annual revenue ($337 million) and only 5 times its net income (which was $31 million in 2010). Its price/earnings ratio (2010) is 4.6.
A management presentation is available here: http://www.eigenkapitalforum.com/092/presentations/f2/Creative%20Industrial%20Group.pdf
Buying for a total of $10,000 at the price of $13.6 per share (or EUR 10 per share). See the stock chart below in euros.
Hat tip: Olivier
The company engages in the production of refined deodorized sunflower oil, modified vegetable fats, hard and soft margarine, mayonnaise, melted butter, and confectionary products. It also produces mayonnaises, mustard, vinegar, and tomato paste. The company exports its products to Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Georgia. Its products are used in food and dairy industries, as well as for bakery products. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Kirovograd, Ukraine. It employs over 1700 people.
Website: http://creativ-group.com.ua/en/
Bloomberg code: 4C8A GR
The company is very cheap: its current market capitalization ($139 million) represents 41% of its 2010 annual revenue ($337 million) and only 5 times its net income (which was $31 million in 2010). Its price/earnings ratio (2010) is 4.6.
A management presentation is available here: http://www.eigenkapitalforum.com/092/presentations/f2/Creative%20Industrial%20Group.pdf
Buying for a total of $10,000 at the price of $13.6 per share (or EUR 10 per share). See the stock chart below in euros.
Hat tip: Olivier
Friday, January 21, 2011
Trades of today
- Selling CAF at $26.50 (stop loss reached). Return on this position: -9.8%
- Selling CDE at $22.56. Return: +42.8%
- Selling GLD at $130.92. Return: +13.6%
- Buying XLE (energy ETF) at $70.0 for a total of $10,000. Stop loss: $63.0
- Buying XLF (financials ETF) at $16.47 for a total of $10,000. Stop loss: $15.0
- Selling CDE at $22.56. Return: +42.8%
- Selling GLD at $130.92. Return: +13.6%
- Buying XLE (energy ETF) at $70.0 for a total of $10,000. Stop loss: $63.0
- Buying XLF (financials ETF) at $16.47 for a total of $10,000. Stop loss: $15.0
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Portfolio performance in 2010
Return of the portfolio in 2010: +11.44%
Return since the start of the portfolio on April 10, 2009: +29.94%
The portfolio now amounts to a total of USD 129,941.
Here is what I observe now in the markets:
- Oil price broke out of its consolidation range to go up. Look at the XLE ETF as a proxy for the energy-related companies
- Gold is in a consolidation range and has formed a triple top; watch out for a possible bearish reversal of the precious metals complex
- US markets are on fire: just look at the Nasdaq (ETF: QQQQ) and the S&P 500 (ETF: SPY): they printed new highs last week
- US financial stocks (ETF: XLF) are doing very well
- Inflation is back !! especially in the emerging markets
- the Euro decreased versus all currencies in 2010, especially versus the currencies of emerging countries
Return since the start of the portfolio on April 10, 2009: +29.94%
The portfolio now amounts to a total of USD 129,941.
Here is what I observe now in the markets:
- Oil price broke out of its consolidation range to go up. Look at the XLE ETF as a proxy for the energy-related companies
- Gold is in a consolidation range and has formed a triple top; watch out for a possible bearish reversal of the precious metals complex
- US markets are on fire: just look at the Nasdaq (ETF: QQQQ) and the S&P 500 (ETF: SPY): they printed new highs last week
- US financial stocks (ETF: XLF) are doing very well
- Inflation is back !! especially in the emerging markets
- the Euro decreased versus all currencies in 2010, especially versus the currencies of emerging countries
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