EUR-USD chart analysis

 

Weekly chart of the EUR/USD:

- price has reversed at the approach of the down trendline that joins the previous highs of July 2008, November 2009 and October 2010

- I am now becoming bearish on this currency pair and expect a return to 1.20

- If EUR/USD goes above the trendline and stays there for more than a week, I would change my mind

EUR/USD chart analysis

Monthly chart of the EUR/USD: the "big picture"
The euro is in a downtrend; next support? around 1.25. If it breaks below, next target is the parity with the dollar.

EUR/USD breakout at 1.4500

As mentioned in a previous post, my buy trigger for the EUR/USD was 1.4500.
We just had to be patient.
This level was triggered today.
I am initiating a long position in EUR/USD on the Forex at 1.4500
Beware of a potential false breakout. Always get prepared for the unexpected!
My stop is at 1.4470.
If EUR/USD would fall below 1.4300, this would trigger a reversal scenario.

EUR-USD: new trade

Entering again in a long EUR-USD position at 1.4264 as mentioned in my previous post of this morning.

The previous resistance at 1.4260 was broken this afternoon around 17:15 CET.

Next targets: 1.4300 (1st planned exit) and 1.4340 (2nd planned exit)

EUR-USD

I sell all my EUR-USD long positions at 1.4255.
Resistance at 1.4260. If it breaks above it, I will go long again with 1.4350 as target

EUR-USD: open trade

Let's look at the above 60-minute chart:
1) In my previous post, I went long EUR-USD on the Spot Forex market at 1.4220.
2) EUR-USD trades now at 1.4213.
3) My stop loss is at 1.4150 (- 70 pips compared to entry price)
4) My 1st exit (selling 50% of my position) will be at 1.4300 (+70 pips; risk/reward 1:1)
5) My 2nd exit (selling the remaining 50%) will be at 1.4400 (+180 pips; risk/reward 1:2.6)

EUR-USD and US dollar index

If the US dollar index breaks the support at 79.5$, we might be heading for a sudden fall of the dollar. Something to monitor very closely tomorrow !

On the opposite side, the EUR-USD chart below shows a potential buy trigger if price breaks out above 1.4150. But always beware of fake moves that might simply bring the currency pair back within the trading range between the two green lines showed in the chart.

US Dollar index: bullish reversal coming?

In the long-term, I believe the USD will decrease in value versus the other currencies (EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD) especially if it loses its status of worldwide reserve currency.
But for short-term trading purposes, the US dollar index could probably go up if it goes above 81.5 (see chart above). I am a buyer at that level and 80.5 is my stop loss.

ETF to focus on: PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (ticker: UUP).
Personnally I trade directly on the forex by shorting the EUR-USD currency pair.
Will keep you updated when I enter into a trade.