Revisiting the Nasdaq Composite Index

I refer to my post of March 11 where I mentioned that the Nasdaq index was at a critical juncture: the index had to break out above the downtrendline that had started in 2000 to be able to continue its move higher. We are now seeing that a fake breakout occurred: the index went above the trendline for about a month but then reversed its rising trend. See the monthly chart above. We are now getting the indication that the secular bear market that started in 2000 might be on its way to continue.

Nasdaq Composite Index

On this monthly chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index (the index of the US technology stocks), you can see:

1) that we are in a secular bear market since the burst of the tech/internet bubble in 2000
2) that within the secular bear market, there was a cyclical bull market from 2003 till 2007
3) in 2008 the market went down strongly and reached a bottom in March 2009
4) we are now at a critical juncture: will the Nasdaq index break out above the downtrend line? if yes, it would mean an end to the secular bear market; if not, a continuation of it.